Winds of change
By Ashley Monckton

OTTAWA — The winds, they are a changing – but as wind energy capacities increase throughout Canada, one scientist says there is a possibility a change in the winds could mean a change in the climate.

There’s no such thing as a free lunch

"There isn’t going to be any technology that’s perfectly clean," professor David Keith announced to a room full of scientists, politicians and policy-makers.

Many environmentalists believe wind power could solve the climate change problem.

Keith, a Canada Research Chair in Energy and the Environment, spoke at a breakfast on Parliament Hill in September.

He discussed a recent study where he and his colleagues looked at whether wind power could change either the regional or global climate.

Keith explained that a field of wind turbines extracts kinetic energy and alters the wind field, which could create a change in the climate.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences published "The influence of large-scale wind-power on global climate," last November.

Keith and his colleagues found the ratio – between the climate changes wind energy was intended to make, and any unintended climate changes from wind energy – was significant enough in their model to warrant a closer look.

An atlas of wind speed across Canada mapping the lowest speeds (blue) to the highest (red).

The study used two different general circulation models – the National Center for Atmospheric Research model, and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model.

But Keith said it is important to remember that coal-fired power is much worse than wind power. The study also found that the direct climate changes wind energy caused were beneficial enough to reduce overall climate impacts.

"We simply have to do more work," he said about his results. "If you knew that [the ratio] was, let’s say, a hundred times bigger, which is clear the undesirable effects were much bigger than desirable effects on climate – then that would be it. Even though it’s a $10-billion industry - you’d it close down."

Big picture thinker

Keith is a professor in both the department of economics and the department of chemical and petroleum engineering at the University of Calgary.

He is also an adjunct professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and sits on national and international panels that deal with climate change.

A wind farm in South-East Ireland, near the shore of the Atlantic Ocean.

"Everything I do is related to climate in one way or the other. Either the technologies for managing the problem, the public policy for managing the problem, or the science of the problem itself," he said.

Joe DeCarolis, a co-author and one of Keith’s past PhD students, said Keith’s ability to see the ‘big picture’ is admirable.

"There are probably not enough people in the world like David who are thinking that far along the road," said DeCarolis.

But despite his 'big-picture' attitude, Keith admits the response to his paper has not been positive: "I was disappointed but not surprised that people in the environmental community reacted so negatively."

Whispers in the wind

Some critics have linked the study to his position in the department of chemical and petroleum engineering. Keith was quick to point out that the study was not for that department and that funding came from the National Science Foundation.

"I don’t work for the petroleum industry. When I meet my neighbours in Calgary, and they ask me what I do, I tell them I’m trying to put them out of business," he said.

Mark Jacobson, an associate professor in civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University in California, is also skeptical of Keith’s findings – but not because of any perceived ties to the industry.

"I don’t think the results in this model prove enough," he said. "It’s such a rough calculation."

But Keith says that just getting other scientists, including Jacobson whom he views as an accomplished atmospheric scientist, to even think about the study makes it a success:

"Maybe they’ll prove that we were totally wrong or maybe they’ll prove that we underestimated the problem."

Keith added we should not only be aware of our current problems, but also be cautious of any big, new energy technology.

"I really care about the big wildernesses in this planet, and we will wreck them if we don’t manage the problem," he said.