Heard it here first

Posted by padams under Election 2008, Election 2008 Campaign strategy

Paul Adams

EKOS is about to release new numbers from Monday and Tuesday which show (drum roll…), no change from last week.

Tories 37%, Libs 26%, NDs 19%, BQ 8%, Greens 10%

For those riding along on my gender gap hobby horse, the Tories are still running away with the men’s vote, but the Liberals have lost their skew towards women. The NDP is attracting women in much larger proportion than men, however.

Here’s the link

Paul Adams is a former political reporter with the CBC and Globe and Mail, now a member of Carleton’s journalism faculty and executive director of EKOS Research Associates.

More about women

Posted by padams under Election 2008, Election 2008 Campaign strategy, Election 2008 Media commentary

Paul Adams

Further to my post yesterday about the Tories’ decisive lead among men, and the Liberals’ struggle to maintain their traditional lead among women, this from the Globe this morning (based on Strategic Counsel’s work in battleground ridings):

The poll also indicates that the Conservatives’ strength in battleground ridings is fuelled by a commanding lead among male voters, those with higher incomes, and voters over 50.

The Liberals, who typically need a lead among female voters to win, are trailing the Tories among women in the B.C. and Quebec battlegrounds, and are essentially tied among women in the Ontario battleground.

“It used to be almost mirror image, where the men would disproportionately go for Conservatives. Now [the Conservatives] have still got their advantage with men and they’ve evened the score with women,” Mr. Donolo said.

Peter Donolo knows, of course. He was Jean Chrétien‘s communications director.

Paul Adams is a former political reporter with CBC and the Globe and Mail. He is now a member of Carleton’s journalism faculty and executive director of EKOS Research Associates.

The election and the economy

Posted by cwaddell under Election 2008, Election 2008 Campaign strategy, Election 2008 Faculty links

Read an assessment of the impact the economy may have on the campaign – Campaigning through a minefield.

Christopher Waddell is associate director of the school and a former Globe and Mail Ottawa bureau chief, former CBC-TV parliamentary bureau chief and election night executive producer for CBC TV News.

All about women

Posted by padams under Election 2008, Election 2008 Campaign strategy

Paul Adams

In the last election, the Liberals likely would have won if only women had the vote.

For some reason, most pollsters haven’t been publishing information on gender so far this year. However, EKOS Research [conflict alert — I also work there] did two polls last week, using different methodologies, both showing the Tories running much more strongly among men than women. One poll showed the Tories doing 6 percentage points better among men; the other showed an astonishing 18 percentage point gap. (See both polls at www.ekoselection.com )

If the Tories did as well among women as they do among men, the election would be practically over, and they’d be heading for more than a majority: they’d have a landslide. Even closing the gap would do wonders for their prospects.

All the other national political parties — the Liberals, NDP and Greens — attract more women than men. So while the Tories have been very successful at aggregating the men’s vote, the women’s vote is dispersed among the opposition parties. If one of them were able to bring the women’s vote home as the Tories do with the men, it would transform the electoral landscape in this election, and probably beyond.

Maybe that’s why we were hearing about child care from the Liberals this morning — and why Elizabeth May was quick to point out that she was excluded from the leaders’ debate by a pack of male leaders and male broadcast executives.

Paul Adams, a former political reporter with the CBC and Globe and Mail, is a member of Carleton’s journalism faculty and executive director of EKOS Research Associates.

The election and the economy

Posted by cwaddell under Election 2008, Election 2008 Campaign strategy, Election 2008 Faculty links

Read an assessment of the impact the economy will have on the campaign – Campaigning through a minefield.

BQ surprise early runner in framing the ballot question

Posted by cwaddell under Election 2008, Election 2008 Campaign strategy

Paul Adams

Who would have thought the Bloc Québecois would get first dibs on how the 2008 election is framed? But they have.

A crucial issue in any election is how the ballot question is eventually “framed” by the media, the parties and the public. Any election is about many things to many different people, of course: leadership, ideology, change, health care, local candidates, the economy, farm policy, the environment, abortion, and so on and so on.

However, at some point, many elections resolve themselves into a dominant media narrative, which is shared to a degree by many members of the public. The dominant “frame” in elections of 1984 and 1993 was about change at the top: whether to “throw the bums out”, in other words. 1988 was about free trade, of course, and the 2006 election ended up being largely about government ethics and accountability.

Almost unconsciously, the media seek a simple frame, or narrative, within which they can situate a variety of stories, in part because it makes their job (and the readers’) easier by reducing distractions and keeping the main story clear.

The parties have a vital interest in which frame the media pick up and run with, of course. That is what they call “framing the ballot box question”. But this year, the media have had trouble in the early running figuring out what that dominant frame should be. The question of whether there should be an early election didn’t have legs. Some tried out the idea that this election is about the economy, but that hasn’t stuck either. Briefly, the election seemed as if it was going to be about leadership, just as the Tories would like: contrasting their guy with the Liberals’.

Remarkably, however, the early front-runner for dominant frame has turned out to be: will Harper’s Conservatives win a majority. I say remarkably because the polls have shifted quite quickly. Two weeks ago, they had the Tories and Liberals in a close race; but last week, the Tories suddenly jumped into majority or near-majority territory, while the Liberals slumped.

“Battle begins for elusive majority,” was the headline in The Globe and Mail the morning after the election call. The lead article in La Presse, using a new poll as evidence, suggested the Conservatives are already likely headed to a majority.

Now let’s look at the parties and see how this suits each of them:

The Tories: Nope. They fear that, as in the past two elections, voters who believe Harper may be about to form a majority will pull back in fear of his alleged hidden agenda”.  Harper keeps claiming he expects no more than a minority – damn the polls. The Conservatives would prefer to talk about “leadership” which they think is a winner for them.

The Liberals: No, not them either. They would benefit from an anti-Tory majority backlash, of course, but as an aspiring party of power, it hardly helps them when the media dismisses their party as possible winners, and takes some sort of Tory victory for granted. They’d like the election to be a referendum on Harper’s “dark side” – and the environment, of course.

The New Democrats: Jack Layton wants the election to be about a clash of fundamental values. He is talking about becoming prime minister at the end of all this. In reality of course, the NDs have their sights on rallying the now-divided left of centre voters to their cause and displacing the Liberals as the alternative party of power. And if that means a Tory majority for a while, that’d probably be OK with them.

The Greens: It’s the environment, stupid.

And so we have the Bloc Quebecois: Gilles Duceppe was the only leader yesterday to talk openly about stopping a Tory majority. In fact, he talked so little about sovereignty (one reference), and so much about Afghanistan, social programs and women’s issues, he may be in danger of picking up left-leaning votes in Saskatchewan. For the moment, he is setting himself up as Canada’s bulwark against a rampant Conservative majority.

Well done, Gilles!

Paul Adams, a former political reporter for the CBC and Globe and Mail, is an assistant professor of journalism at Carleton, and executive director of EKOS Research Associates.