The trouble with online polls

Posted by padams under Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Media commentary, Media Commentary

Paul Adams

The redoubtable tcnorris has a post on the methodological issues with online polls and the reason that many, perhaps most, reputable news organizations in the United States give them a wide berth.

Online polls, especially those based on “opt-in” panels — that is, those that poll respondents who have signed up to be polled rather than being recruited by a random process — have a very checkered record in elections. Angus Reid, for example, produced an excellent result in the last Canadian election, but blew last year’s British election badly.

There has been considerable confusion about the conflicting “stories” told by the polls recently. Some have the Tories in the mid-thirties and others in the low forties.

However, if you exclude the online panels (Angus Reid and Leger), what you find is that all but one of the polls conducted by phone show the Tories at the lower level.  Nanos, Harris-Decima and EKOS are telling similar stories, with the Tories very much in minority territory. Among phone polls, only Ipsos joins the online polls in showing the Tories with a majority-territory lead.

Paul Adams is an associate professor in the School of Journalism and Communication at Carleton. He is a former Parliament Hill reporter and worked in the polling industry. You can follow him on Twitter @padams29

Making sense of contradictory polls

Posted by padams under All

Paul Adams

Two pieces worth reading on the recent batch of seemingly contradictory polls, and what they might mean:

The mysterious (and always instructive) tcnorris compares the implications of two groupings of polls — those with the Tories running strong, and those with them running in traditional low-to-mid 30s territory.

On the Globe website, Eric Grenier of 308, goes at similar issues in a slightly different way.

Paul Adams is an associate professor in the School of Journalism and Communication at Carleton. He is a former Parliament Hill reporter and worked in the polling industry. You can follow him on Twitter @padams29

Iggy Coalition Climbdown Watch: Ding!

Posted by padams under Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Media commentary, Media Commentary, Political Strategy

Paul Adams

That didn’t take long: just one day longer that it should have. As I predicted yesterday, Ignatieff’s views on a coalition have “evolved” under withering pressure from the media, some Liberal commentators, and the government. There was no reason why this shouldn’t have happened yesterday other than political naivete.

As Stephen Harper walked into Rideau Hall this morning, Michael Ignatieff issued a release saying that, “We will not enter a coalition with other federalist parties”. (Before you panic, the statement also says, “We categorically rule out a coalition or formal arrangement with the Bloc Quebecois.”)

Ignatieff and his advisors have made the tactical judgement that his continued obscurantism was going to dog him through the campaign, and help the Harper Conservatives to fully realize the coalition bogeyman. They cleverly released the statement just moments before Harper’s prepared remarks that went heavily on the coalition that Ignatieff has now flatly disavowed.

So they think this is what is best for the Liberal campaign.

Read more…

New book on the way

Posted by jpammett under All

Jon Pammett

Chris Dornan and I have finalized plans for the “Carleton book” on the 2011 election.

THE CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION OF 2011

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION Chris Dornan

CHAPTER TWO THE CONSERVATIVES Faron Ellis and Peter Woolstencroft

CHAPTER THREE THE LIBERALS Brooke Jeffrey

Read more…

Iggy Coalition Climbdown Watch: Day One

Posted by padams under Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Media commentary, Media Commentary, Political Strategy

Paul Adams

Moments after the government fell this afternoon, Michael Ignatieff gave his first press conference in full election mode.

When he had been asked about the possibility of forming a coalition government earlier this week, he parried the question, saying that there is only a Red Door and a Blue Door in this election.

The issue is important because the Liberals want to argue, as Ignatieff did today, that a vote for any party but them is a vote for the continuation of Stephen Harper’s government. If Ignatieff allows that he might form a coalition with the NDP after the next election, then that seems obviously untrue. In that case, the election of NDP members could also contribute to the cause of ousting Harper.

If Ignatieff admits he might entertain a coalition, he undermines this central appeal. If he flatly denies he would consider one, however, he will discourage some of his own supporters, alienate potential Green and NDP switchers, and most importantly limit his strategic options after the election.

Read more…

Election a bad idea? Ask a Libyan about that

Posted by jsallot under Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Faculty links, Election 2011 Media commentary

We’re into a federal election, a campaign that the governing Conservatives say is unnecessary and unwanted.

This will be the third federal election in five years, a fact the Conservatives hope can be used as a cudgel against the opposition parties.
Some news organizations are picking up on this theme.

“With a federal election almost certain, Canadian taxpayers will once again be footing the bill for their right to vote,” began a Postmedia news report this week. The report estimated the cost of this year’s election will come in at more than $288-million.

That’s not chump change for most of us working stiffs.

But it pales in comparison to the price being paid in blood by people in Libya, Yeman, Syria and elsewhere in North Africa and the Middle East to win the right to vote for their governments and leaders. Read more…

Canada’s Silent Near-Majority: How Our Parties Are Failing The Future

Posted by padams under Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Political Strategy

Paul Adams

The genial former Tory minister, Monte Solberg, tweeted this week that he thought he had election fever, only to realize it was actually cholera. I don’t remember an election that inspired so much dread right from the outset, even from the political and media classes for whom elections are normally the equivalent of the Stanley Cup final. And no wonder. The last few weeks have seen a barrage of unpleasantries intruding into our evening viewing pleasure. In the House of Commons, the economy turned up briefly — for about 48 hours this week — and then receded as the opposition raged about the government’s moral failings. In question period yesterday, Ralph Goodale went after John Baird, who went at everybody else, as the snarling dogs of war strained at their leashes.

And of course, many people believe that the election result is already close to a foregone conclusion: a return of the Harper government, whether as a minority or a majority.

It probably isn’t too soon to say that Canadians’ dismal record in turning out at the polls will likely be matched or even exceeded in this election. In 2008, the turnout was just 59%. The number had been 75% as recently as 1993. If something doesn’t happen, it seems perfectly possible that before too long a majority of Canadians will be sitting on their hands at election time.

Read more…

Campaign preparations

Posted by cwaddell under Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Student articles, Political Strategy

Watch a March 18 story from Carleton’s student-run web publication Capital News on candidates preparing for the election.

Then listen to a Capital News discussion with Carleton political science professor Jonathan Malloy on political scandals in Canadian history.

Reprising the coalition

Posted by cwaddell under Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Political Strategy

Christopher Waddell

With a federal election campaign about to begin, the post-2008 election three-party Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition talk is already back with the Conservatives likely to be bringing it up as often as possible. Before anyone pays much attention to all that though,  it is worth remembering that the environment is much different than in 2008.

There will be a provincial election in Quebec probably before the end of 2012 and the Parti Quebecois stands a reasonable chance of winning that vote. With that could come renewed talk of separation and even another referendum. As long as that remains a possibility, it would take a political world far stranger than even the one we have seen in recent months to have a federal coalition government in Ottawa include the Bloc but in an election campaign that’s unlikely to stop the Conservatives claiming it could happen.

Christopher Waddell is director of the School of Journalism and Communication at Carleton University. He is a former reporter, Ottawa bureau chief for the Globe and Mail and a former CBC-TV parliamentary bureau chief and executive producer-news specials for CBC TV News. You can follow him on Twitter @cwaddell27