Right format, wrong participants

Posted by cwaddell under All, Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Faculty links, Election 2011 Media commentary

Christopher Waddell

The mixture of one-on-one and group engagement in last night’s debate highlighted why the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP are so happy that the broadcast consortium did their dirty work for them in being the bad guys who excluded Elizabeth May and the Green Party from the debates.

Mr Duceppe’s presence provides tangible benefits to each of the other three parties while Ms May poses a threat none of them need or want on display.  As a result,  the format worked for the parties but not for voters.

The one-on-one sessions between Mr Duceppe and each of the others leaders were largely irrelevant. Each was debating someone who can’t cost them any votes or threaten the $2 subsidy that goes with every vote each party receives.

The low point came in the exchange between Mr Duceppe and Mr Layton where it appeared at a couple of moments that they had simply run out of things to say and were hoping moderator Steve Paikin would put them out of their misery by ending their session early.

Replace Mr Duceppe with Ms May and the dynamic changes completely.

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So if you had any doubts….

Posted by ealboim under All, Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Faculty links, Election 2011 Media commentary

Elly Alboim

Yesterday, with its dueling leaks of AG drafts, was probably the most bizarre and most newsworthy pre-debate day in Canadian electoral history. It also provided a coda to a remarkable two weeks of cavalier political behaviour.

Adding it up.

Both the Liberals and Conservatives produced platforms that were outdated before they were published. They manufactured proposals on the fly or matched proposals by others. Chief among them was the extension of the 6% escalator on health transfers.

Both parties trumpeted fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets as their core guiding principles and proceeded to break the fiscal frameworks they had set for themselves. And neither could produce a plan to accommodate the new spending that even a first year policy studies student would accept as real.

And yesterday, both parties trafficked in confidential AG drafts. The first leak was identified by the reporter as coming from a supporter of the Opposition. The second leak was identified by the reporter as coming from the Conservatives directly — not that there was much doubt as both the Conservative spokesperson and designated Minister clearly acknowledged they had copies of a subsequent draft – copies they were not supposed to have. The fact that the AG’s office utterly depends on confidentiality and iterative transactions with government departments did not seem to matter to either. The willingness to risk undermining the institution was palpable in the face of what the parties saw as a potential game changing political event. And despite stern warnings from the AG for people to suspend judgment until reading the final report, the political characterizations and battle roiled on. Shortly afterwards, it was revealed that government members saw fit to misuse a six year old quote from the AG in a minority report. The government was forced to apologize to a furious AG.

And tonight the leaders will be live to the nation arguing about accountability and fitness to govern and suggesting that only they can be entrusted with safeguarding our institutions.

Good thing we didn’t have another week of campaigning before the debate to further test that proposition.

Elly Alboim is an associate professor of journalism and a former CBC TV Parliamentary Bureau Chief.

Five Myths about the Leaders’ Debates

Posted by jpammett under All, Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Faculty links, Election 2011 Media commentary

1. MYTH It is a pivotal moment in the campaign.

REALITY. There are no pivotal moments in most campaigns.

2.  MYTH It is the time in the campaign when people start paying attention.

REALITY   People who watch the debates are more likely to be people who are interested in politics in the first place.

3.    MYTH  Leaders in the debates are vulnerable to making a big mistake.

REALITY  All the leaders usually do pretty well in the debates, because they are so well prepared, and the questions are so predictable.

4,  MYTH  Leaders in the debates are trying to get voters to switch over to them.

REALITY  The debates are all about reinforcement, where the idea is not to deter people from voting for their party or candidate if they are otherwise inclined to do so.

5. MYTH  Debates have a big impact on the election result.

REALITY  The debates have very little impact on the election result.

Wedge politics and base rebuilding

Posted by cwaddell under All, Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Faculty links

Christopher Waddell

The flurry over the Auditor General’s report about spending on last year’s G8/G20 summit provided a moment of excitement for those who think tonight’s leaders debates should be all about issues like this. Those would be the same people who think the last Parliament was a roaring success.

The risk in making the G8/G20 a major debate point is that it will be for the general public, yet another example of inward mudslinging to which there is no connection made to the lives of Canadians or their hopes and fears for the future.

An election that is supposed to be a chance for Canadians to determine collectively where they want to go as a country and how it will affect their lives as individuals instead becomes yet more parliamentary irrelevance. It’s not that how government spends is unimportant but in the public eyes it is difficult to differentiate between parties, when in power they all behave the same.

What it does reveal though is a more substantial issue. The political parties have abandoned two groups who collectively have traditionally been a major chunk of the support for both the Liberals and Conservatives – people who combine fiscal and social conservatism and those who are fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

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The potential impact of the debates

Posted by aturcotte under All, Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Faculty links

André Turcotte

As I was driving my kids to school this morning, I heard radio talk show hosts musing that the upcoming Leaders’ Debates “may be the most important ones we have witnessed in a long time.” For an election campaign largely devoid of excitement so far, the prospect of oratorical fireworks is both needed and appealing. But what do we know about the impact of Leaders’ Debates on electoral outcome?

In general, scholarship on the topic suggests that the impact of debates is minimal. While some leaders have experienced a surge in support after a good performance – Mulroney in 1984, Turner in 1988, Charest in 1997 – it is generally suggested that the positive impact is short-lived and dissipates by the time voters head to the polls. This is the main reason Leaders’ Debates are scheduled well-ahead of Election Day. However, we can identify some interesting dynamics when we evaluate this event through the prism of partisanship.

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Over the Line

Posted by ealboim under All

Elly Alboim

In a panel discussion on CBC Radio’s the Current this morning, Senator Pamela Wallin suggested that “Liberal” Speaker of the House Peter Milliken had issued his famous ruling to help build his legacy as Speaker. By labeling him with his party, she clearly implied that he had had partisan motives as well.

For an appointed Senator whose very existence depends on the legitimacy of Parliament and its institutions to question the integrity of a Speaker of the House is remarkable. Presumably if a member of the House did so, there would be consequences.

There is a partisan fury that seizes all parties at this time and particularly those tasked with doing media panels (although as an aside, it is never clear that the cacophony of those panels attracts a single voter). But presumably common sense says there has to be a limit beyond which even partisan rhetoric should not go. Doing damage to the office of the Speaker seems well beyond those limits.

The Conservatives use Ms. Wallin in these situations because of her background and high profile. That is understandable. But precisely because of her credibility and profile, she probably has special responsibilities beyond those of most of her colleagues. Undermining an institution that is central to the functioning of Parliament is not among them. Or at least should not be.

Elly Alboim is an associate professor of journalism and a former CBC TV Parliamentary Bureau Chief

Budget credibility

Posted by cwaddell under All, Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Faculty links

Christopher Waddell

While everyone remembers that the Chretien government balanced the federal budget and produced a surplus in the mid-1990s, there’s another aspect of what Paul Martin did as Finance minister that gets much less attention. He also returned credibility to the federal budget process.

Fixed budget dates in early February, a $3-billion annual contingency fund that could be used only for unexpected debt servicing costs or would go to debt reduction at year-end and even under-promising and over-delivering (until that tactic became too obvious) all played a part in restoring the credibility of the federal Finance department, the minister and the budget-making process.

It was needed following a Conservative government under Brian Mulroney that regularly promised the deficit would be eliminated two or three years into the future, yet annually delivered $30-billion shortfalls and could rarely say no to spending on unexpected and unbudgeted political demands.

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How to spend billions in the twinkling of an eye

Posted by ealboim under All, Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Faculty links

Elly Alboim

Staggering is the only word for the windfall Canada’s provinces received this morning. It totals in the billions of dollars. It also says volumes about the way politics are conducted in Canada.

Under a ten year deal signed by Paul Martin, Ottawa’s health transfers to the provinces have been growing by 6% annually –it’s called the 6% escalator for obvious reasons. The deal is due to end in 2014 and everyone had been anticipating a set of very difficult federal-provincial negotiations. Well apparently, thanks to the federal election campaign, those talks have ended before they started.

This morning, Michael Ignatieff issued a open letter on health policy and committed the Liberals to continuing the 6% escalator. He did that just five days after issuing his platform which did not have this commitment in it. In fact, it said among other things that “while provinces and territories are struggling with escalating costs, it’s far from clear that more money is the only solution.”

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The “news” of election campaigns

Posted by ealboim under All, Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Faculty links, Election 2011 Media commentary

Elly Alboim

In 1989, some of the best and the brightest of Canada’s political establishment – politicians, political operatives, pollsters, journalists and academics – gathered at Queen’s University to talk about the election that had just ended.

For two days, in front of television cameras, they discussed what had gone wrong in the experience they had just shared . This was after what has since become idealized as the best and most substantive election campaign in recent Canadian history – the free trade election. Further, it was the first election after the introduction of the GST – the largest change in Canadian tax policy in decades – and conducted in the middle of the disintegrating Meech Lake ratification process.

It is hard to imagine a more complex and important campaign policy agenda. And still, there was a collective feeling of a 56 day (yes, campaigns were eight weeks long then) failure to conduct and report on the campaign and its choices in a way that properly served the public interest.
At the heart of the discussion and the multiple sense of grievance, was a set of dilemmas and questions that persist, and once again was dominant in week two of the current election campaign.

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The looming debates

Posted by ealboim under Election 2011, Election 2011 Campaign strategy, Election 2011 Faculty links, Election 2011 Media commentary

Elly Alboim

Now that the debates are a week away, debate teams within the camps are getting ready for the final push on preparations. The leaders will probably end serious campaigning by Saturday and head into intensive rehearsal.

From a vantage point of having covered quite a few national and provincial leaders’ debates, having been on three debate preparation teams and having done real time public opinion research of debates along with friend and colleague David Herle, here are some observations over time.

The audiences

There are two very different audiences for televised debates during an election campaign.

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