A lot of people think it’s hopeless

Posted by cwaddell under Election 2008, Election 2008 Student articles

Matthew Pearson

Trevor Haché wants to be a locksmith.

The NDP candidate in Ottawa-Vanier is hoping to break open the ironclad lock the Liberals have had on the riding for decades.

It won’t be easy. Ottawa-Vanier, which was called Ottawa East until 1973, has elected Liberals in every election since the federal riding was created during the Great Depression. 

Mauril Bélanger, the riding’s current MP, won in a 1995 by-election with 61 per cent of the vote. His margin of victory has gradually decreased in the four general elections since, but his grasp on the riding has never faced a serious challenge. On the face of it, nothing short of a catastrophic collapse of the Liberal Party nationally would put the seat in the play for the other parties.

But that doesn’t deter them from trying.

“A lot of people think it’s hopeless and yet, when you actually look at the numbers, this is the second best riding in the Ottawa area, maybe all of Eastern Ontario, for the NDP,” Haché said.

He added the party has to focus on ridings it doesn’t currently hold, in addition to running strong campaigns in its 30 incumbent ridings, including Ottawa Centre.

“We need to build in the places that have potential to be built up,” he said. About 50 volunteers have already signed on to help Haché and a recent blitz was designed to drum up even more campaign workers.

Ottawa-Vanier isn’t the only riding of its kind in Canada. The Mount Royal riding in Montreal has steadily elected a Liberal since 1940, while in Alberta, Conservative Myron Thompson has clobbered the competition in the Wild Rose riding, winning more than 70 per cent of the vote in the last three elections. NDP MP Bill Blaikie has held his Winnipeg riding since 1979. He and Thompson are not running in this election.

Katherine Graham, a political scientist and dean of Carleton University’s Faculty of Public Affairs, said incumbent parties and candidates have a natural advantage over other candidates. But over time, voters might also develop a habit.

In order for the habit to be broken, Graham suggested a sitting MP would either have to behave egregiously or belong to a government that affronts the party’s base with its behaviour in power.

In the meantime, she said some voters might feel shut out.

“For those people who maybe don’t share the view that either the dominant party or the candidate are the best deal for them or think their vote is wasted, the sentiment might emerge, ‘Why bother?,’” she said.

Conservative candidate Patrick Glémaud said some voters in Ottawa-Vanier — which he described as a “bread and butter riding” — are tired of Liberal representation.

“People are starting to get the message that, ‘well, maybe we should have some change, maybe we should have someone who will be working for the people in the riding but in government,” he said.

While French is still the primary language for about one-third of the riding’s residents, Mr. Glémaud added an influx of new Canadians and young families has changed the demographics of Ottawa-Vanier. Bélanger and Glémaud are both bilingual, while Haché is not.

With such a historic grip on the riding, one might think Bélanger and the Liberals could take it easy on the campaign trail. But Bélanger said that’s not the case. He will spend long hours canvassing the riding and talking to voters.

“I will not be accused of slacking off,” he said.

Back at his campaign office, Haché said he remains optimistic in spite of the odds stacked against him.

“Stranger things have happened,” he said. “It’s just a matter of us being able get our message out to voters and if we’re able to do that, I’m sure that message is going to resonate with people.”