All about women

Posted by padams under Election 2008, Election 2008 Campaign strategy

Paul Adams

In the last election, the Liberals likely would have won if only women had the vote.

For some reason, most pollsters haven’t been publishing information on gender so far this year. However, EKOS Research [conflict alert — I also work there] did two polls last week, using different methodologies, both showing the Tories running much more strongly among men than women. One poll showed the Tories doing 6 percentage points better among men; the other showed an astonishing 18 percentage point gap. (See both polls at www.ekoselection.com )

If the Tories did as well among women as they do among men, the election would be practically over, and they’d be heading for more than a majority: they’d have a landslide. Even closing the gap would do wonders for their prospects.

All the other national political parties — the Liberals, NDP and Greens — attract more women than men. So while the Tories have been very successful at aggregating the men’s vote, the women’s vote is dispersed among the opposition parties. If one of them were able to bring the women’s vote home as the Tories do with the men, it would transform the electoral landscape in this election, and probably beyond.

Maybe that’s why we were hearing about child care from the Liberals this morning — and why Elizabeth May was quick to point out that she was excluded from the leaders’ debate by a pack of male leaders and male broadcast executives.

Paul Adams, a former political reporter with the CBC and Globe and Mail, is a member of Carleton’s journalism faculty and executive director of EKOS Research Associates.